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The big picture: Who is favored to win the presidency?

Chance each candidate has of winning Electoral College or the popular vote in the 2024 presidential election and best predictions of the outcome based on 40,000 simulations from the model.

Candidate Harris: Electoral College probability 38.7%, popular vote probability 60.8%, predicted electoral votes 261.3, predicted popular vote share 50.0%.

Candidate Trump: Electoral College probability 61.0%, popular vote probability 39.2%, predicted electoral votes 276.7, predicted popular vote share 48.9%.

No majority: 0.3%

Note: Each candidate winning exactly 269 electoral votes would result in no Electoral College majority, but it could also happen if a third party candidate receives electoral votes.

Updated September 13, 2024. Source: SILVER BULLETIN.

Information

Original Post Date	Saturday, September 14, 2024, 02:39 pm EDT
Capture Date	Tuesday, October 6, 2026, 08:17 pm EDT
TRUTH Social status ID	`113137363042943123`
Original URL	https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/113137363042943123
Removed from platform	Yes — confirmed removed Apr 1, 2026, 1:11 AM EDT

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The big picture: Who is favored to win the presidency? Chance each candidate has of winning Electoral College or the popular vote in the 2024 presidential election and best predictions of the outcome based on 40,000 simulations from the model. Candidate Harris: Electoral College probability 38.7%, popular vote probability 60.8%, predicted electoral votes 261.3, predicted popular vote share 50.0%. Candidate Trump: Electoral College probability 61.0%, popular vote probability 39.2%, predicted electoral votes 276.7, predicted popular vote share 48.9%. No majority: 0.3% Note: Each candidate winning exactly 269 electoral votes would result in no Electoral College majority, but it could also happen if a third party candidate receives electoral votes. Updated September 13, 2024. Source: SILVER BULLETIN.